Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Cyclic Baseball

Here is todays puzzle. If you think that you know the answer, please post it in the comments section.

In baseball, hitting for the cycle means that a player hits a single, a double, a triple and a home run all in one game. At any given at bat, Jim has a 17.5% chance of hitting a single, a 6% chance of hitting a double, a 1.5% chance of hitting a triple and a 2.5% chance of hitting a home run. What is the chance of Jim hitting for the cycle in a game where he has 4 at-bats? Please give your answer as a percent.

The answer will be posted on Friday.


  1. Here's a relevant blog thread, albeit using 2010 data:

  2. My answer is:

    p(hitting a natural cycle) / (# of ways one can hit the cycle, or 4P4, or 4!)

    (.0175*.06*.015*.025) / 24 = 1.6406 E-8

    = .0000016406%