Here is todays puzzle. If you think that you know the answer, please post it in the comments section.

In baseball, hitting for the cycle means that a player hits a single, a double, a triple and a home run all in one game. At any given at bat, Jim has a 17.5% chance of hitting a single, a 6% chance of hitting a double, a 1.5% chance of hitting a triple and a 2.5% chance of hitting a home run. What is the chance of Jim hitting for the cycle in a game where he has 4 at-bats? Please give your answer as a percent.

The answer will be posted on Friday.

Here's a relevant blog thread, albeit using 2010 data:

ReplyDeletehttp://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-odds-of-a-cycle/

My answer is:

ReplyDeletep(hitting a natural cycle) / (# of ways one can hit the cycle, or 4P4, or 4!)

(.0175*.06*.015*.025) / 24 = 1.6406 E-8

= .0000016406%